Catalog & Inventory
Forecasting & Demand Planning
Use historical data to predict demand and optimize stock levels.
Anticipate demand and plan your purchasing with forecasts built from the actual sales at each of your locations.
Overview
Stogly's Forecasting module calculates how fast each item is consumed at each location and recommends what to order. Use it to:
- Reduce stockouts by reordering before stock runs out
- Minimize overstock by ordering only up to each location's max level
- Spot dishes that are at risk because their ingredients are running low
- Improve cash flow by buying the right quantities at the right time
Viewing the Forecast
Step 1: Open the Forecasting Page
- Navigate to Analytics > Forecasting
- Use the location filter — All Locations, or a single location or warehouse
- Choose the Period — last 7, 30, or 90 days
The forecast is per location. With all locations selected, each product appears once per location, with a Location column.
Step 2: Read the Summary Cards
The cards at the top show Critical Items, Recommended Orders, Items with consumption, and Recommended order value.
An item is critical when it needs reordering and its stock will run out before a new delivery could arrive.
Step 3: Review the Sections
| Section | What It Shows |
|---|---|
| Need Reorder | What to order now, with a Create PO button per item |
| Consumption forecast | Items with consumption that are still covered by stock |
| Production Risk | Dishes that sell at the location but whose ingredient stock there will not cover the next 3 days of expected sales — with the ingredients that are short and how many portions each allows |
Each item shows:
| Column | Description |
|---|---|
| Stock | Current stock, plus the quantity already on order from open purchase orders for that location |
| Min / Max | The min and max level set for the location |
| Avg. daily consumption | Average consumption per day in the chosen period |
| Days Until Stockout | How long the current stock will last |
| Trend | The last 7 days compared with the 7 days before |
| Confidence | High, Medium, or Low — or No data when nothing sold in the period |
| Recommended Order | The quantity to order |
How Demand Is Calculated
- Demand comes from actual sales at that location in the chosen period
- For restaurants, each dish sold is expanded through its recipe (including sub-recipes such as sauces) into the ingredients it uses — so ingredients get a real consumption figure even when they are currently out of stock
- Returned (refunded) goods are subtracted for regular products
- Recorded waste counts as consumption too — a wasted dish is expanded into its ingredients, like a sold one
- Warehouses have no sales of their own, so their rows are driven by min/max levels
- If no sales were recorded for the selection in the period, a notice says that recommendations are based on min/max levels only
How Recommendations Are Calculated
| Element | Rule |
|---|---|
| Reorder point | Consumption during the lead time plus a safety stock that grows when consumption is erratic. It is never lower than the location's min level |
| Lead time | The product's own lead time; a product left on the default 7 days uses its supplier's lead time when the supplier has one |
| Recommended quantity | Orders up to the location's max level when one is set (never less than the lead time needs); otherwise enough to cover the lead time plus 7 more days. Products sold by the piece are rounded up to whole units |
| No consumption history | The recommendation only tops up to the min level |
| Stock on order | Quantities on open purchase orders are counted, so nothing is recommended twice |
Using Forecasts for Purchase Planning
Create a Purchase Order
- In the Need Reorder section, find the item you want to order
- Click Create PO — purchase-order creation opens for that product
- Complete the purchase order as usual (see the Purchase Order Management guide)
Export the Forecast
Click Export Report to download the forecast as an Excel file.
Tips & Best Practices
- Set min/max levels per location — the reorder point never drops below the min level, and recommendations order up to the max level (see Inventory > Inventory, Stock Levels tab)
- Keep supplier lead times up to date — reorder points and critical items depend on them
- Keep recipes complete — for restaurants, ingredient consumption is derived from the recipes of the dishes sold
- Review weekly — check the forecast at least once a week to catch emerging trends
- Check Production Risk before busy days — it shows which dishes you may not be able to serve
Need help? Contact support at support@stogly.com